The nkm approach to counting populations in your area:

Local authority allocations of funds are population based but the Census that sets the baseline only occurs every ten years. The results of the 2001 Census in some areas were hotly disputed with the result that some local authorities have lost out heavily on funding. Despite robust evidence from independent studies that have shown significant shortfalls, the differences were not mirrored in subsequent mid-year estimates. Cumulatively over a ten year period it is estimated that some of the worst affected local authorities may have lost hundreds of millions of pounds in revenue.  

While the ONS have made improvements to their enumeration techniques and have encouraged local engagement to avoid the under-counting issues of the 2001 Census, there are still concerns regarding low response rates and if imputation methods are valid in hard-to-count areas. This is because people who do not respond to the Census questionnaire are also likely to not respond to the Census Coverage Survey. Blanket imputation formulas may not apply in very diverse areas with complex household structures. Further, the Census form is limited to 6 people. Unless large households complete their form online, there is a risk that people will be missed.

nkm have used their ‘neighbourhood knowledge management’ data linkage techniques over the last 8 years to establish a methodology for counting local populations where local authorities have required more accurate and up-to-date population statistics. The methodology, the subject of recently published ESRC funded academic research, is discussed here.

Local authorities can use this as evidence of an alternative population picture for consideration by the ONS.

nkm canprovide Census 2011 assistance by:

• Calculating a population count as at Census day 2011 using local administrative data for comparison, that bypasses the problems associated with survey response and has a far quicker turn-around
• This involves gathering local administrative datasets and modelling them to determine who are the current residents at each address
• Providing the main population count output; a population database with a wealth of demographic and socio-economic information at the individual and household level, including the age and sex demographic of each individual, which is unavailable elsewhere
• This output is far more flexible than Census output in that spatial boundaries and variable cross-referencing is not pre-determined
• This can be used in unlimited local intelligence and planning applications. See case studies here

An nkm administrative data count can equip your local authority with intelligence about your population in the event of disagreements with the Census, and beyond that, a powerful, current, demographic database for local decision making. An nkm database is also very valuable to other services providers and has also been used by many primary care trusts.

Contact nkminfo@googlemail.com or 0208 943 4110